The Trouble with Obama's IS Strategy

President Obama's much awaited strategy for degrading and ultimately destroying the Islamic State (IS) group was unveiled last week to a captive international audience that has been horrified by the sheer savagery of the group. There is no doubt that IS poses a threat to global peace and stability and as such it had to be confronted through a concerted millitary effort.

The long over due four part strategy has by and large been welcomed across the world with the usual exception of Russia and China, Syria's ever-reliable allies, which have expressed reservations in regards to Syria's territorial integrity and of course by Al Assad's Syria, which insists that it must be co-opted in any action against IS within its boarders, never mind that it has no control over large parts of Syria which are under IS control and Syrian rebels fighting to overthrow Al Assad.

There is little doubt that Obama's strategy will, at least in the short-term, degrade IS to the point of reducing it to a rag tag band of rebels without control over any territory in Iraq. The same however cannot be said of Syria, the group's safe haven, which is where the jihadists will eventually retreat to once they are routed in Iraq.

What however is debateable about Obama's IS strategy is its ability to achieve its main objective of destroying the group. If the decade-long war on al-Qa'ida is anything to go by, IS won't be ultimately destroyed through military effort alone. In fact, as a result of this intervention, IS will in all probability mutate into something else potentially more virulent and resilient than itself in pretty much the same way it metamorphosed from al-Qaida to Islamic State.

The Trouble with President Obama's IS strategys is that it places very little emphasis on addressing the Islamist ideology which is the root cause of the Islamic State problem. Deploying the military to degrade and destroy the IS group will certainly disrupt the group and help put a temporary stop to its murderous campaign.

However, a comprehensive strategy for countering the Islamist ideology that is propelling IS and other jihadist groups is infinitely more important and effective in dealing with the persistent problem of jihadism. Obama's strategy pays lip service to the underlying problem of Islamist ideology and that is its greatest shortcoming. His strategy, unfortunately, deals with the urgent and ignores that which is more important and that is not what we expect of President Obama.

Confronting the Islamist ideology is a battle for hearts and minds something which the State Department, not Pentagon, is better equipped to undertake. The Department's public diplomacy outreach, which among other things, works to confront ideological support for terrorism is home to the Center for Strategic Counterterrorism Communications. Unfortunately, the State Department is always overshadowed by Defense Department when it comes to matters security and it seems America would rather cure the problem through military might than prevent it through the thankless tasks carried out by the State Department.

Not too long ago, in his commencement speech to West Point graduands, President Obama counseled his countrymen telling them that, "U.S. military action cannot be the only or even primary component of our leadership in every instance." "Just because we have the best hammer", he went to say, "does not mean that every problem is a nail."

In his four-part strategy to defeat IS, Obama seems to have either forgotten or pressured to make military action the primary component of his response to the threat posed by IS against his better judgements. Whatever the case may be, he still has the opportunity to reogarnize the priorities of his strategy. If the air strikes are successful in putting a halt to the bloodshed and IS goes into hiding, that could be an opportune moment for reworking the priorities of his strategy. If however, history repeats itself as it is notorious for doing exactly that, IS will retreat to Syria and Syria will become the new Afghanistan.

The Middle East Culture Wars

The tragedy of how the elite media failed catastrophically in Iraq is living proof of just how little the West understands the Middle East. From Iraq to Libya and from Syria to Yemen, the region is encumbered with strife and the issues underlying the conflicts are rather complex. The complexity of the issues is perhaps only matched with the savagery of the hostilities and quite frankly, nobody seems to know exactly how to intervene and stop the bloodshed and resolve the underlying issues.

Recently, President Obama admitted that his administration didn't have a strategy for dealing with the Islamic State group which is based in Syria and which in July made foray into Iraq seizing control of almost a third of that country. That stunning admission by the President underscored just how ignorant the Western world's is concerning the Middle East and the trigger-happy knuckle heads clamouring for yet another US-led intervention in Iraq and Syria are further proof of this ignorance.

To be sure, putting a stop to the violent conflicts across the region is relatively easy but the crux of the matter is in resolving the underlying issues causing the conflicts in the first place. There is no doubt that the US military can respond in a moment's notice should it be called to action anywhere in the Middle East but resolving the underlying issues fueling the conflict is not something that can be resolved militarily. If anything, military action has in the recent past served to fan the embers of hatred for the West and the ongoing vicious cycle of violence.

Seeing the Big Picture

Thanks to new-found oil wealth and the ensuing interchange of good and services, Muslim Arabs today have access to highest standards of living that money can buy. Along with that, the traditional Arab way of life has undergone a complete makeover thanks to the exchange of world views, ideas, and culture that takes place in the marketplace and the global public square. Traditional Arab values and attitudes have been greatly modified and in some cases replaced while in others lost all together. Arabs now proudly live in ultramodern cities and towns, where family and tribal ties tend to break down and where women, as well as men, have equal access to education and employment opportunities.

This trade-off and rapid integration of the Muslim Arabs world into the global scheme of things is highly welcome and unwelcome in equal measure. Whereas the advantages and irresistible comforts of mordern life are highly welcome, the attendant social political and cultural shifts are in some cases diametrically opposed to Arab people's sacred way of life that has hitherto remained untouched for centuries. Unfortunately for the good people of Middle East, the abhorrent changes that have come with modern life in the 21st century are inevitable as much as they are a fact of life.

For the ruling elite in all the autocratic states across the region and especially Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Baharain, the social political change has served to enlighten and empower their populace to stand up for their rights and democratic governance. In the UAE, for example, where the ruling elite are just as paranoid about their grip on power as the House of Saud is across the border, innocent activists are labelled terrorists and coup plotters and hardly a month goes by without Emirati activists being tried and convicted often in absentia to prevent them from going back home.

For the religious types across the region, the guardians of everything moral, the socio cultural change sweeping across the region has sparked in some rekigious leaders an extremely dangerous militant reaction that has led to the horrific 'holy wars' that we are witnessing across the region. For these religious fundamentalists and their followers, anyone who does not subscribe to their doctrines and values and beliefs simply has no right to live. Al-Qa'ida (AQ), Al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Al-Qa'ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Al-Shabaa, Ansar al-Islam, Boko Haram, and Islamic State are prime examples of jihadist groups which believe that their way of life is the only acceptable way of and the must become the way of life for everybody else and they stop at nothing in their efforts to impose it on others.

Elements of a Solution

The jihadists across the region and other parts of the world must howevrr be helped to come to terms with the inevitability of the socio political and cultural change and the folly of their crude resistance to it. Contrary to the widely-held belief, the change sweeping across the globe, not just the Middle East, is not the product of American machination or the West as it were, but rather is something that is actually driven by economic and technological forces and as many religious people will agree, spiritual forces, that are well beyond the control of America and all Western governments put together. 

There simply is no amount of bloodshed or acts of terrorism, no matter how vile, that can slow down much less reverse the paranormal process bringing change across the globe. If anything the jihadist resistance to change has rendered the Middle East arguably the worst casualty of the change sweeping across the world.

The jihadists and the region as a whole must accept and learn how to co-exist in the same society with other people with whom they have sharp religious cultural and political differences. It is not reasonable for anyone in this 'new civilized' world which is anything but civilized, to impose their values, beliefs, and attitudes on everybody else, that only ends in conflict. The only acceptable way of propagating one's views in this new age is by being living by your values and beliefs and being a good specimen of their effects and alternatively by gently persuading others to adopt one's values and beliefs.

World powers working to find lasting solutions to the crises in Iraq and Syria and other parts of the Middle East, must realize that the sectarian conflicts are primarily a struggle between elements seeking to use state machinery to resist cultural change and whereas the extremist' murderous campaign must be stopped effort must be put in place to help them accept and cope with change. 

On the other hand, autocratic governments should be helped to navigate the transition into democratic societies. A thorough understanding of the undercurrents in the various conflicts across the region is essential to crafting the appropriate response. Limited military intervention might be necessary in some cases but if only to stop wanton bloodshed, but sustainable solutions to these conflicts will require a totally different approach that takes cognizance of the facts at play and that avoids the counterproductive use of force.

The Politics of Land Reform

It is highly regrettable that we Kenyans simply cannot have an intelligent conversation on land reform. It was deeply troubling for the Inspector-General of police to purport to warn us against having a national discourse on the issue yet land reform is one of the foundations in which the Vision 2030 pillars are anchored on. Ours is an agrarian economy in which land is the primary source of wealth and the most productive resource. Our land-tenure system however is faulty and has been identified as an impediment to economic development.

To be sure, the driving force for undertaking land reform is usually political, not economic. Don’t be fooled by the irony; whereas the driving force for undertaking land reform is political, the purpose for undertaking land reform is underpinned by sound economics. The irony only serves to prove that in every true democracy there is more politics than economics in economic policy formulation.

Politics Most Foul

For all of its denials, it was an open secret that State House was secretly propping up Musalia Mudavadi to succeed President Kibaki. The word on the street was that Musalia was as a ‘compromise candidate’ for the Gema community. Despite Uhuru Kenyatta having what seemed like good prospects of succeeding President Kibaki, his indictment at the ICC with crimes against humanity was for all intents and purposes an insuperable millstone around Uhuru neck. Apparently, the level headed State House operatives had long since come to grips with Uhuru’s predicament at The Hague and they were intent on handing over the reins of power to an acquiescent moderate that is Musalia and the Gema community understood it thus.

Everything seemed to have fallen in place when Musalia, who had earlier been cajoled to ditch Raila’s ODM party, signed a pact with Uhuru and William Ruto in which Uhuru agreed to step down for him as their coalition’s presidential candidate. And then, out of the blue, Uhuru pulled a fast one on Mudavadi and backtracked on his promise citing manipulation by ‘dark forces.’ Poor Mudavadi was short-changed and in effect consigned to the political junkyard where he fittingly belongs depending of course on which side of the political divide you look at it from. The operatives behind project Mudavadi were none the wiser even though they were left with egg on their faces. With the benefit of hindsight, it was a total escapade.

We Must Learn to Concede Defeat

A truly historic and highly publicized presidential debated in which all the presidential candidates will take part is slated for the day after tomorrow, 11^th February 2013, and I have to say that I have both good and bad feelings about it. Good feelings because not only is the presidential debate merely a first in our fledgling democracy, but primarily because political debates of this nature are an essential part of the electoral process. The debate is expected to greatly help voters in their evaluations of the candidates and hopefully the voter decision come 4^th of March 2013, will be more informed. Bad feelings because it is a debate that will be ruinously cluttered, defeating the very purpose of the presidential debate.

There are eight candidates in the race to State House but as we all know, Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta are the only two serious contenders in the race; the other six: Musalia Mudavadi, Martha Karua, Peter Kenneth, James ole Kiyapi, Paul Muite and Mohammed Duba are all peripheral candidates who for all intents and purposes do not stand a cat in hell’s chance of winning the election. Be that as it may, these peripheral candidates are expected to take part in the debate simply because it is politically incorrect to not have them take part in the debate. Well, I beg to differ!

Courting Ambivalence in Politics and the Elections

There is simmering ambivalence among many Kenyans over the monkey business that was party nominations, the mayhem it sparked in various parts of the country evoking bitter memories of the 2007/08 post election violence, and the predictable political fallout that followed. Party nominations have always been a passage of great danger for politicians and political parties alike but with all the electoral reforms that have been enacted, Kenyans somehow expected party nominations to be conducted with utmost care and decorum; but that was not to be. The nominations were in words of one syllable shambolic. Certainly, logistical challenges were partly to blame and that is easy to fix but what was also clear and which is a matter of grave concern, was that politicians and their supporters flatly refused to give the nominations exercise the respect it deserves leading to the fracas that were witnessed in several parts of the country.

Why Sonko Could Win ...at Least in Theory

The film ‘Rebel Without a Cause' released in 1955 was a rude awakening to many American parents because it vividly brought them to terms with the reality of their disaffected urban youth who were resisting parental authority for no apparent reason despite coming from what were otherwise considered good well-to-do families. Today, the disaffected urban youth phenomenon is global thanks to globalization and that all too familiar rural-urban migration. It is said that music is a universal language and the language of disaffected urban youth is gangsta rap. Gangsta rap is a type of rap music, typically with words about violence, guns, drugs and sex. The lovers of gangsta rap who are mostly urban youth consider gangsters, hardened criminals, drug dealers, and their ilk as heroes. Heck! Many outside the U.S. even considered Osama bin Laden, the world’s most infamous terrorist, a hero.

According to official statistics the youth constitute 70 per cent of the Kenyan population and the overwhelming majority of them live in urban areas throughout the country. The Kenyan urban youth, just like their contemporaries around the world, are also a disenfranchised lot. They are disaffected by the debilitating lack of opportunities and they are disenchanted with the Establishment which they figure somehow is the greatest impediment to their upward mobility. This is why change and reforms have remained the foremost election issues in every election cycle since 1992 after the successful struggle for multiparty democracy in Kenya. Uncannily though, change and reforms have remained frustratingly elusive and it feels as though the democratic process simply isn’t working or if it is, it is rigged and this, my friends, is the source of Mike Sonko’s popularity.